Indianapolis, US NEWS: As conference championship games wrapped up with a mix of dominant performances and stunning upsets, the College Football Playoff selection committee is set to finalize the second annual 12-team field. The official announcement comes Sunday, December 7, at noon Eastern Time, but based on recent outcomes and committee trends, nine teams appear solidly positioned for a shot at the national championship.
The remaining spots, however, remain up for grabs, with Alabama, Notre Dame, and Miami in strong contention for the final at-large berths, while BYU lingers as a potential spoiler. In the Group of Five conferences, Duke and James Madison are vying for automatic qualification, adding another layer of uncertainty to the mix.
These projections aim to mirror the committee’s likely decisions, factoring in elements like strength of schedule, quality wins, and recent form, rather than personal opinions on merit.
Championship weekend delivered several pivotal results that reshaped the landscape. In the Big Ten, Indiana stunned Ohio State with a 13 to 10 victory, capitalizing on the Buckeyes’ red zone struggles to claim an undefeated season and the conference title. This positions the Hoosiers, under head coach Curt Cignetti, as the frontrunners for the top overall seed in a remarkable turnaround for the program.
The Big 12 saw Texas Tech assert itself decisively, routing BYU 34 to 7 behind a suffocating defense that forced four turnovers and shut down the Cougars after their initial score. Similarly, Georgia overwhelmed Alabama 28 to 7 in the SEC championship, controlling the line of scrimmage and limiting the Crimson Tide’s explosive plays throughout.
James Madison cruised to a 31 to 14 win over Troy in the Sun Belt, solidifying their championship and bolstering their playoff credentials. The ACC title game went to overtime, where Duke edged Virginia 27 to 20, capping an 8 and 5 season with an unexpected crown that could complicate the conference’s representation in the postseason.
Drawing from committee precedents, here is the anticipated top 25 ranking heading into the reveal:
- Indiana
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Miami
- BYU
- Texas
- Vanderbilt
- Utah
- USC
- Tulane
- Virginia
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Houston
- Georgia Tech
- James Madison
- Iowa
- North Texas
For automatic bids, the five highest ranked conference champions are expected to include Indiana from the Big Ten, Georgia from the SEC, Texas Tech from the Big 12, Tulane from the American, and James Madison from the Sun Belt.
The seven at-large selections would then feature the top non champions: Ohio State, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Alabama.
Several narratives will dominate discussions as the committee deliberates. At the upper end, questions persist about whether Ohio State, with an unbeaten regular season, merits a first round bye despite falling short in the title game. Precedent suggests their body of work could secure that advantage.
The spotlight, though, falls on the bubble around seeds nine and ten. Alabama recently leapfrogged Notre Dame in the rankings, a move that raised eyebrows given similar resumes. Following their SEC loss, the Tide might slide back, potentially preserving Notre Dame’s edge over Miami.
A broader issue looms: how severely will the committee punish teams for competing in and losing conference championships? This could directly impact Alabama and BYU’s final placement.
Additionally, the Group of Five dynamic bears watching. Tulane seems secure, but James Madison’s commanding performance opens the door for them to claim a spot, which might exclude the ACC entirely if Duke’s overall record does not hold up under scrutiny.
With these factors in play, the selection show promises clarity on a field rich with talent and potential matchups. Fans and analysts alike will tune in to see how the committee navigates this competitive puzzle.